Generating+&+Testing+Hypotheses

Generating and Testing Hypotheses - Northampton Area School District
Lydia Hanner and Debbie Ohmacht


 * Strategy Overview:

Although people most often associate generating and testing a hypothesis as a science strategy only, generating and testing hypotheses can be used in many different types of classrooms, not only a science classroom. For instance, students can apply the strategy of generating and testing a hypothesis to stories they are reading in language arts class, to a current event they are discussing in social studies class, or to an historical event they are learning about in history class. Generating and testing a hypothesis requires several cognitive skills that help students learn, analyze, apply, and evaluate information in many different content areas. In order to generate and test a hypothesis: **


 * First, the student must know some information about the topic either through studying the topic, observing the topic, or through prior knowledge regarding the topic.
 * Second, the student must develop some basic understanding of the rules about the topic, for instance, how it acts, why things occur as they do, and what influences or impacts the topic.
 * Third, the student must predict what would occur in a specific instance, for example, if something about the topic is changed--a character dies in a story or different rules were in place to impact a current event.
 * Fourth, the student must test the hypothesis in some way--virtually or for real.
 * Finally, the student must report the findings by explaining why the result aligned with what he predicted, or, if the result did not align to his prediction, why it did not.


 * Research Supporting the Strategy:

According to T. S. Hansell (1988), generating and testing a hypothesis involves the application of knowledge, and it is something we do quite naturally in many situations (Marzano, 2001). As children, we quickly understand that when we cry, someone comes to help us. We all know the story of the child who cries wolf once too often, so, as adults, we also know that many children have tested crying in different situations just to see the results. When we observe things in our world, understand results, and make predictions, we are generating and testing hypotheses.

**


 * Effect Size:**


 * The average effect size for two synthesis studies conducted by Hattie et al in 1996 and J.A. Ross in 1988 for the general effects of generating and testing hypotheses is .75 which is a large effect size and which would show approximately a percentile gain of 27 in student performance (Marzano, 2001). In another study regarding generating and testing hyphotheses conducted by Fullan and Rolheiser (2002), the effect size was .61 with a percentile gain of 23 in student performance. **

[|This link will supply examples of reciprocal teaching cards that can be used in the classroom.]

1. __Deductive__ - using a general rule to make a prediction about a future action or event 2. __Inductive__ - drawing new conclusions based on information a person knows or is presented with
 * Two Methods for Generating and Testing Hypotheses:**

Although thinking is never purely either deductive or inductive, generally speaking, deductive approaches produce better results (Marzano, 2001). When using deductive approaches, teachers first present students with principles regarding the topic in question. When using inductive approaches, teachers ask students to discover principles about a topic through research, observation, or experimentation. One drawback to an inductive approach is that students may infer inaccurate principles regarding the topic and would therefore need to "re-taught" the correct principles regarding the topic.


 * An Important Component of Generating and Testing a Hypothesis is Making Sure Students Can Explain their Hypotheses and Their Conclusions:

According to the research of D. R. Lavoie (1988), it is important for students to be able to explain the principles they are working from, the hypotheses they generate from these principles, and why their hypotheses make sense. The research shows that the process of explaining their thinking helps students deepen their understanding of the principles they are applying to their hypotheses.

**
 * Six Types of Activities for Hypotheses Generation and Testing:**

1. __**Problem Solving**__ - Whiled engaged in solving problems, student must generate and test hypotheses related to the various solutions they predict might work. In the process, students identify a goal, describe the constraints, identify different solutions, try the solutions, and explain whether the hypothesis was correct (See example at right).

2. __**Systems Analysis**__ - While studying a system such as a system of government, ask students to generate hypotheses that predict what would happen if some aspect of the system were changed. In the process, students explain the purpose of the system, describe how the parts affect each other, identify a part of the system and describe a change in the part, then hypothesize what would happen as a result of the change.

3. __**Invention**__ - To do this, students must hypothesize what might work, develop the idea, and then conduct tests to determine if their idea does work. In the process, students must describe a situation they want to improve, identify specific standards for the invention, brainstorm ideas and hypothesize the likelihood that it will work, develop the invention, and test the hypothesis (See Invention example worksheet below right).



4. **__Decision Making__** - In this activity, students use a structured decision-making framework to examine hypothetical situations. In the process, students describe the decision and the alternatives being considered, identify the criteria, score and rate the importance of the criteria to determine which is best (See example Decision-Making Matrix above left).

5. **E**__**xperimental Inquiry**__ - This activity can be used to guide students in applying their understanding of important content. In the process, students observe something of interest, apply specific theories to explain what is observed, generate a hypothesis to predict what would happen if they applied the theory, set up an experiment, explain the results, and decide if the hypothesis was correct.

6. __**Historical Investigation**__ - To do this, students need to use their understanding of the historical time to generate a hypothetical scenario. In the process, students describe the historical event, identify what is known, offer a hypothetical scenario, and then seek out evidence to determine if the hypothetical scenario is plausible (See example to the left).


 * Suggestions for Teaching the Strategies:

1 . Provide students with templates for reporting their work.

2. Provide sentence stems for young students to help them articulate their explanations

3. Ask students to make audiotapes or podcasts explaining their hypotheses and conclusions

4. Provide rubrics so students know the criteria

5. Set up ways to publish or show student work including parent and community audiences **




 * Works Cited**

Fullan, M., and Rolheiser, C. (2002). //Breaking through change barriers. Alexandria.// VA: Association for Supervision & Curriculum Development.

Marzano, R., Gaddy, B. and Dean, C. (2000). //What works in classroom instruction.// Aurora, CO: Mid-continent Research for Education and Learning.

Marzano, R., Pickering, D. & Pollock, J. (2001). //Classroom instruction that works.// Alexandria, VA: Association for Supervision & Curriculum Development.